Updated: March 2026
Thurston County Market Report
Welcome to the March real estate market update. The headlines right now are exceptionally loud. Some claim the market is crashing, while others insist a massive rebound is right around the corner. As your calm guide through the noise, my goal is to break down exactly what the data tells us so you can make informed decisions in the South Puget Sound, starting with the big picture.
National Market, Economy & Mortgage Rates
Beyond the National Headlines
We are currently seeing a macro-level shift toward a buyer’s market. Analysts are referring to this current period as “The Great Stall,” which sounds intimidating but actually represents a healthy return to normalcy.
Across the country, home prices are relatively flat, showing about a 1.2% increase year over year. Because this minor price growth sits below the current pace of inflation and wage growth, housing affordability is finally seeing slow, steady improvement. In fact, the typical monthly mortgage payment is now 8.5% lower than it was a year ago.
At the same time, overall housing inventory is up 10% from last year, giving buyers much-needed options. We are not entering crash territory, however, because total inventory still remains 18% below 2019 levels. While overall sales volume across the U.S. took a step backward in January to a pace of 3.9 million home sales, this was heavily influenced by temporary factors like severe winter weather and low consumer sentiment. The underlying fundamentals of the broader market remain stable.
Interest Rates & Economic Indicators
- Are rates stable? Yes. The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is hovering right around 6.09%. While this is higher than the pandemic lows, it is down a full percentage point from a year ago. This stability is a good thing. It allows buyers to accurately underwrite their purchases without worrying about wild month-to-month rate swings.
- Are buyers taking advantage of this? Absolutely. Mortgage purchase applications are up almost 10% compared to this time last year. We are also seeing a massive 109% year-over-year jump in refinance demand as homeowners with higher rates jump at the chance to lower their monthly payments.
- Is a national housing crash imminent? The data points to no. A true housing crash requires a massive imbalance of supply and demand, specifically driven by a surge in forced selling. Right now, mortgage delinquency transitions remain historically low at roughly 1%, and unemployment is sitting at a relatively low 4.3%. Homeowners have low rates and high credit scores, meaning they can afford to pay their mortgages.
- What does this mean for you? If you are a buyer, this is the moment you have been waiting for. You have leverage to negotiate. The average buyer is securing nearly a 3.8% discount off the list price, and those who negotiate patiently with motivated sellers are seeing discounts closer to 8%. If you are a seller, the overarching trend suggests you must price your home accurately based on current market comps. You can successfully sell your home, but you need to be realistic and prepare for a traditional, patient sales process.
While the national data paints a picture of a slow, macroeconomic transition, Washington State is experiencing a much more dynamic shift as we head into the spring market. Here in the Pacific Northwest, buyers are finally seeing significant relief when it comes to housing options.
Washington State & NWMLS
According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS), February brought a substantial surge in inventory across our region. As mortgage interest rates briefly dipped below 6% at the end of the month, sellers who had been waiting on the sidelines decided it was time to move forward with their lives. This infusion of active listings is providing buyers with options and negotiation leverage they haven’t experienced in recent years.
Key Stats: NWMLS February 2026
- Active Listings: Inventory surged nearly 28% year-over-year to 13,341 active properties, with 19 of the 27 NWMLS counties posting double-digit gains.
- Median Sales Price: The median price for residential homes and condos sits at $620,000. This is down -1.6% from February 2025, but up +4.2% from January.
- Pending Sales: Buyer demand remains steady, with 5,886 units going under contract, +0.4% from last year.
- Months of Inventory: The region is currently sitting at 3.22 months of inventory. For context, a truly balanced market is considered to be between 4 and 6 months.
How do we calculate housing inventory? It’s easy math: we take the total number of homes for sale right now and divide it by the average number of homes that sell each month. In plain English, it tells us: If no new homes hit the market starting today, exactly how many months would it take for buyers to buy up everything left?
Legislation & Regional News
Beyond the daily market data, we are closely tracking state-level legislation and regional initiatives that will fundamentally impact future housing supply and costs. Most notably, lawmakers are advancing
Senate Bill 6026.
Regionally, local municipalities are also discussing the adoption of a “
Home Energy Score” (HES) model ordinance.
How This Impacts Washington Residents
What does all this regional data and legislative movement actually mean for your bottom line?
First, the 28% surge in inventory is the major headline,
but the critical nuance is found in the months of inventory. At 3.22 months, Washington state is still technically in a seller’s market.
Second, state lawmakers are actively trying to engineer more housing inventory through
aggressive zoning reforms like SB 6026.
Lastly, the ongoing discussion around the Home Energy Score represents a growing shift toward housing transparency.
As we transition from the broader Washington State data down to our hyper-local market, the narrative shifts significantly.
Thurston County
For buyers and sellers in Olympia, Lacey, and Tumwater, the market dynamics have fundamentally changed compared to this time last year.
Key Stats (Thurston County Residential)
- Median List Price: $581,375 (-6.22% from February 2025)
- Active & Contingent Inventory: 530 properties (+31.84% year over year)
- Pending Sales: 387 units (+29.87% year over year)
- Average Days on Market: 78 days (+21.88% from February 2025)
- Months of Inventory: 2.09 months (+22.94% from last year)
Data Synthesis: The Local Reality
When we translate these local statistics into practical reality, a very clear picture emerges. Thurston County is actively defying the national narrative.
Nationally, inventory is creeping up at a pace of about 10%. But right here in Thurston County, active and contingent residential inventory climbed by nearly 32% compared to last February, ending the month with 530 available homes. Buyers looking in our local communities finally have a level of variety and optionality that has been absent from our market for years.
A significant driver of this local inventory boost is new development. We ended February with 128 new construction homes on the market, which now make up 24.2% of our total available inventory (3-year average is 20%). Builders are actively stepping in to provide much-needed supply.
If we look solely at that growing inventory number, it might be tempting to assume the market is rapidly depreciating or approaching a standstill. However, the data tells a much more balanced story. Pending residential sales, which represent buyers actively writing contracts and moving forward with purchases, hit 387 units. That is nearly a 30% increase from this time last year. This is a crucial metric. It proves that the buyer demand in Olympia, Lacey, and Tumwater remains highly robust. Buyers are not abandoning the market. They are simply taking advantage of the increased supply and stabilized interest rates to find the right home. At the same time, we are seeing a softening in seller expectations, with the median list price dropping over 6.2% compared to a year ago.
The Burgher Breakdown
The most important takeaway from this month’s data is understanding the relationship between rising supply, the average time it takes to sell, and specific price points.
Properties in Thurston County are now taking an average of 78 days to sell, a nearly 22% increase year over year. However, that number requires critical context. We are currently navigating a highly stratified market divided right at the $500,000 mark. For homes priced under $500,000, we have just 1.34 months of inventory, meaning the lower half of the market is moving incredibly fast. Conversely, homes priced over $500,000 sit at 2.65 months of supply, requiring significantly more time and patience to secure a buyer.
In reality, we are experiencing a tale of two markets based entirely on condition and pricing. Highly desirable, accurately priced homes are still going under contract within the first few days of hitting the market. Local NWMLS data shows that roughly 21% of pending residential sales still involve multiple offers, bidding wars have not disappeared, and buyers are still utilizing escalation clauses to win contested properties. We even see occasional instances where inspections are waived to strengthen an offer. However, because buyers have gained broader leverage over the past three years, 75% of pending contracts do retain a standard inspection addendum. Simply put: the pristine, well-priced homes go quickly, while the rest require time and patience.
For sellers, this means you must accurately price your home based on current, hyper-local comps rather than the inflated numbers of previous years. It also means keeping your home in show-ready condition, navigating negotiations calmly, and understanding that buyers now have the leverage to ask for standard contingencies, something they often did not have just a few years ago.
For buyers, this extended timeline is a distinct advantage. It means the era of rushing a massive financial decision is largely over for the majority of properties. You have the time to evaluate a home, consult with your agent, and construct a logical, well-protected offer. With the median list price decreasing over 6% and active listings jumping roughly 32%, you do not have to settle. You can negotiate patiently and seek out motivated sellers ready to transition to their next chapter. Just remember: while you have the advantage of time on the average house, highly desirable properties still sell quickly.
Market Conclusion
Are we currently in a buyer’s, seller’s, or balanced market?
Based on the current residential rate of sales, Thurston County ended February sitting at exactly 2.09 months of supply. Mathematically, this means we are still in a seller’s market.
However, a functional
real estate market is about more than just a single mathematical threshold. With the recent surge in listings, new construction making up a quarter of our supply, and homes taking longer to close, this market feels significantly more balanced than it has in recent memory. Sellers, in general, are becoming more comfortable with the expectation that their home may sit for two to three months before it is sold.
There is an exception. Some sellers still need to move quickly, and if they do not price correctly from the start, they will often be open to negotiations just to get a deal done. This is exactly where buyers now hold a substantial amount of power. Ultimately, it is a soft, forgiving seller’s market that continues to provide excellent opportunities for both sides of the transaction.
Let’s Connect
Real estate decisions are rarely made overnight, and interpreting the noise of the current market requires a steady, analytical approach. If you are curious about how these February numbers impact your specific property, your neighborhood, or your long-term goals for the year, let’s connect.
Whether you are trying to navigate the complexities of buying a waterfront home, or you simply want a realistic assessment of your current equity, I am here to help. We can grab a cup of coffee or schedule a brief phone call. My role is to provide you with the exact data and strategic guidance you need to make confident decisions, entirely on your timeline and without any pressure.
Since 2012, Nate has provided professional marketing for more than 6,000 listings across the region. This gave him an inside look at the market long before he earned his license in 2022. In just his first three years as an agent, he has guided clients through over 100 transactions, combining that deep marketing insight with a relentless drive to serve.
Nate’s work ethic was built in small-town sawmills and on the University of Washington baseball field. He has spent his career in high-stakes service roles, whether as a South Seattle EMT, a CPR instructor, or a high school coach. He brings that same calm under pressure and a commitment to selflessness to every real estate client he represents.
As an Olympia local, Nate previously built and ran a successful creative agency in the heart of the city. His history of community involvement includes serving on the board of the Olympia Downtown Alliance for three years and currently serving on a committee for the Hands On Children’s Museum. When he isn’t working, he is usually with his wife Stephanie and their daughters, EmmyLou and June.
